It’s time for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 16 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 16 NFL best bets and Week 16 NFL predictions.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets – 1:00 pm ET
I’m not willing to lay the points with the Rams, as there has been some life in the Jets lately. New York is coming off a 32-25 win over Jacksonville last week. The team has now covered in back-to-back games, and Aaron Rodgers has thrown for eight touchdowns and only one pick over the last four games. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if New York makes this somewhat tough on Los Angeles, and I can see it being a close game late. However, I would be pretty surprised if the Rams lose this. This is a massive game for Los Angeles, as the team is hoping to stay at the top of the NFC West standings. Winning games like these is a must if the team wants to do that. In terms of DVOA, the Rams are a much better team than the Jets. Los Angeles’ total DVOA is 5.2%, while New York’s is -12.3%. Sean McVay is also 29-8 straight-up as a road favorite with the Rams, and he’s also 24-11 SU in December games. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-4 SU against teams with winning records under Jeff Ulbrich. The one win was a wacky victory over a struggling Texans team.
As far as the second game goes, I’m not too worried about this being Michael Penix Jr.’s first start. I’m with Atlanta in thinking that the rookie’s live arm and ability to move around will make him an improvement over the Kirk Cousins we have seen in recent weeks. That said, even if Penix Jr. does make some mistakes in this game, the Falcons should be able to do enough to beat the lowly Giants. This is another game with a big DVOA edge, with Atlanta being -6.9% and New York being -23.1%. It also shares the similarity of being a game in which the Falcons desperately need a win, while the Giants would be better off losing. Atlanta is also 7-4 SU as a favorite under Raheem Morris, and the Falcons are also 6-3 SU when facing teams with losing records. I’m just not very worried about Atlanta finding a way, even in an odd week. That said, I’m using this game to get myself a better price on the Rams.
PARLAY: Rams ML & Falcons ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
The Packers tried to pound the ball between the tackles, with Josh Jacobs rushing 26 times for 94 yards. And while the results were a bit of a mixed bag, the commitment to the run allowed Jordan Love to shred the Seahawks through the air. Love was 20 for 27 for 229 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the game, and he had a Passer Rating of 123.8 in the win. Well, Minnesota is another team that blends the running game and passing game to perfection. That said, I think Kevin O’Connell, one of the best play callers in the league, will be able to watch last week’s film and put together an awesome plan of attack for the offense. Look for Minnesota to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Jones quite a bit, and then Sam Darnold will play off that when throwing to a red-hot duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Defensively, I’m expecting more of the same. I’m not sure there’s a smarter defensive coordinator in the NFL than Brian Flores, so he’ll look at the blueprint Green Bay used to stifle the Seattle offense last week.
The Vikings are also just very good when expected to win these days. Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 10-1 SU and 6-2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Bet: Vikings -3 (-110 – 1.5 units)
Texans +3.5 (-110 – 2 units) vs. Chiefs – Click here for my Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview for Saturday!
6.5PT TEASER – Bengals -0.5 vs. Browns & 49ers +8.5 vs. Dolphins (-140 – 1.5 units)
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2024 Record: 53-51 (-4.15 units)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets – 1:00 pm ET
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 pm ET
I’m not willing to lay the points with the Rams, as there has been some life in the Jets lately. New York is coming off a 32-25 win over Jacksonville last week. The team has now covered in back-to-back games, and Aaron Rodgers has thrown for eight touchdowns and only one pick over the last four games. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if New York makes this somewhat tough on Los Angeles, and I can see it being a close game late. However, I would be pretty surprised if the Rams lose this. This is a massive game for Los Angeles, as the team is hoping to stay at the top of the NFC West standings. Winning games like these is a must if the team wants to do that. In terms of DVOA, the Rams are a much better team than the Jets. Los Angeles’ total DVOA is 5.2%, while New York’s is -12.3%. Sean McVay is also 29-8 straight-up as a road favorite with the Rams, and he’s also 24-11 SU in December games. Meanwhile, the Jets are 1-4 SU against teams with winning records under Jeff Ulbrich. The one win was a wacky victory over a struggling Texans team.As far as the second game goes, I’m not too worried about this being Michael Penix Jr.’s first start. I’m with Atlanta in thinking that the rookie’s live arm and ability to move around will make him an improvement over the Kirk Cousins we have seen in recent weeks. That said, even if Penix Jr. does make some mistakes in this game, the Falcons should be able to do enough to beat the lowly Giants. This is another game with a big DVOA edge, with Atlanta being -6.9% and New York being -23.1%. It also shares the similarity of being a game in which the Falcons desperately need a win, while the Giants would be better off losing. Atlanta is also 7-4 SU as a favorite under Raheem Morris, and the Falcons are also 6-3 SU when facing teams with losing records. I’m just not very worried about Atlanta finding a way, even in an odd week. That said, I’m using this game to get myself a better price on the Rams.
PARLAY: Rams ML & Falcons ML (-109 – 1.5 units)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 pm ET
I made the mistake of backing Seattle against Green Bay last week, and I can now be accused of making the mistake of overreacting to one game. However, it really isn’t just one game. The Seahawks have shown us that they can’t really be trusted to win big games, as they’re just 2-3 SU and against the spread versus teams with winning records this year. They’re also just 1-4 both SU and ATS when playing as home underdogs this season. Well, that’s exactly the situation we have here, as Seattle is hosting a very good Minnesota team. And I actually think that what we saw on Sunday night is very important when looking at this game.The Packers tried to pound the ball between the tackles, with Josh Jacobs rushing 26 times for 94 yards. And while the results were a bit of a mixed bag, the commitment to the run allowed Jordan Love to shred the Seahawks through the air. Love was 20 for 27 for 229 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the game, and he had a Passer Rating of 123.8 in the win. Well, Minnesota is another team that blends the running game and passing game to perfection. That said, I think Kevin O’Connell, one of the best play callers in the league, will be able to watch last week’s film and put together an awesome plan of attack for the offense. Look for Minnesota to put the ball in the hands of Aaron Jones quite a bit, and then Sam Darnold will play off that when throwing to a red-hot duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Defensively, I’m expecting more of the same. I’m not sure there’s a smarter defensive coordinator in the NFL than Brian Flores, so he’ll look at the blueprint Green Bay used to stifle the Seattle offense last week.
The Vikings are also just very good when expected to win these days. Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 10-1 SU and 6-2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Bet: Vikings -3 (-110 – 1.5 units)
Additional Week 16 Best Bets
Chargers ML (-143 – 1.5 units) vs. Broncos – Click here for my Chargers vs. Broncos Thursday Night Football betting preview!Texans +3.5 (-110 – 2 units) vs. Chiefs – Click here for my Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview for Saturday!
6.5PT TEASER – Bengals -0.5 vs. Browns & 49ers +8.5 vs. Dolphins (-140 – 1.5 units)
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2024 Record: 53-51 (-4.15 units)
